Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14326

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14325, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14326
    29 Oct 2026, 17:55 UTC

    ID4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionID4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcbae814f7f32c0a3

    discovery-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication+0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e3d485a317966c81f5adc23a…
    follows 7822be8bf72b…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14326: ID4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ID4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.