Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14325

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14324, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14325
    29 Oct 2026, 17:55 UTC

    ID4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionID4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredff15ecb90a270f48

    discovery+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7822be8bf72b74a65d3f8be1…
    follows d8a305b4c85d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14325: ID4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.02, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ID4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.