Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14327

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.360). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14326, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14327
    29 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC

    MRPS30

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMRPS30 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f54468e5797be5e

    discovery-0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.360)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d2e439234260f027630e36ee…
    follows e3d485a31796…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14327: MRPS30 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MRPS30 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.