Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13396

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13395, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13396
    28 Oct 2026, 21:12 UTC

    DOCK5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDOCK5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredebff139a7160bdc1

    discovery+0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    71d22fa1fd7c892259a314d8…
    follows 4c77f2d7f1d0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13396: DOCK5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOCK5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.