Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13395

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.023; held-out +0.28 p 0.464). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13394, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13395
    28 Oct 2026, 21:11 UTC

    DOCK5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDOCK5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef3eaf24114f71c5

    discovery+0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.464 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.023; held-out +0.28 p 0.464)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    4c77f2d7f1d08c658ec1be81…
    follows b43d84f6b14e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13395: DOCK5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOCK5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.