Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13366

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13365, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13366
    28 Oct 2026, 20:29 UTC

    LMO3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLMO3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2692e0c0c6c12238

    discovery-0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    38776bfdf286ae46f079c878…
    follows 8d56e97d0264…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13366: LMO3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LMO3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.