Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13365

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13364, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13365
    28 Oct 2026, 20:29 UTC

    LMO3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionLMO3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered962264c7257e337d

    discovery+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.388 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8d56e97d02643a67c6b05456…
    follows 43a11dc32439…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13365: LMO3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.15, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LMO3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.