Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13367

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13366, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13367
    28 Oct 2026, 20:32 UTC

    GRAMD2B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGRAMD2B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6f3d3b23ddbab168

    discovery+0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f12bc62ff3459f131d9d796…
    follows 38776bfdf286…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13367: GRAMD2B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRAMD2B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.