Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9965

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.341). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9964, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9965
    25 Oct 2026, 17:47 UTC

    TRIM22

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRIM22 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2f08b99e45476325

    discovery+0.36 p=0.341 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.103 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.341)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3fb920b1f8df4c1a79d6551b…
    follows a6f22955dcab…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9965: TRIM22 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18), 95% CI +0.00 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM22 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.