Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9964

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.668). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9963, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9964
    25 Oct 2026, 17:47 UTC

    TRIM22

    microglia, braak

    predictionTRIM22 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredadd09bbb6d858f7d

    discovery+0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.886 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.668)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a6f22955dcab3e3d2a114cd5…
    follows fea4690a4b96…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9964: TRIM22 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM22 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.