Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9847

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.387). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9846, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9847
    25 Oct 2026, 15:13 UTC

    IRF5

    microglia, braak

    predictionIRF5 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede17c03fd5ed6090f

    discovery-0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.387)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f6036935a22f9a42403950d…
    follows 632284e9c792…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9847: IRF5 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IRF5 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.