Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9728

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9727, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9728
    25 Oct 2026, 12:31 UTC

    QDPR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionQDPR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede00c60d248ca0cce

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.170 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c8e0d2ad72d1fce3cc797972…
    follows 37e7b2f01a27…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9728: QDPR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for QDPR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.