Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9727

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.044; held-out -0.21 p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9726, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9727
    25 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC

    QDPR

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionQDPR in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered83700b88691c12b5

    discovery+0.68 p=0.044 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.044; held-out -0.21 p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    37e7b2f01a27f96383c5913d…
    follows 520384cc4145…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9727: QDPR in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.23, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for QDPR in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.