Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8501

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out +0.01 p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8500, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8501
    24 Oct 2026, 09:21 UTC

    TNFSF13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFSF13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered530ba2f9df9889fa

    discovery-0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out +0.01 p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    24ae231b6c9e35e042d53c0a…
    follows e0916d5dedaa…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8501: TNFSF13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFSF13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.