Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8500

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8499, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8500
    24 Oct 2026, 09:21 UTC

    TNFSF13

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTNFSF13 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd1423f102c322885

    discovery-0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e0916d5dedaab17c87b69a12…
    follows d32e4936ad2f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8500: TNFSF13 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFSF13 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.