Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7792

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7791, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7792
    23 Oct 2026, 18:13 UTC

    INPP5D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionINPP5D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb1a2321aef9e51dc

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c6878c5478aa2a43dc07c735…
    follows 03ba9dc5e320…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7792: INPP5D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.19. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for INPP5D in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.