Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7791

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.894). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7790, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7791
    23 Oct 2026, 18:13 UTC

    INPP5D

    microglia, braak

    predictionINPP5D in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f5b47abf1d490d8

    discovery-0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.894)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    03ba9dc5e320ce04c4a45233…
    follows 4ea0168129c9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7791: INPP5D in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.24, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18) vs +0.12 in microglia. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for INPP5D in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up INPP5D · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 2.7e-4)