Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0502

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.602). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 501, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0502
    17 Oct 2026, 02:26 UTC

    EPM2A

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionEPM2A in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4071caa948b81483

    discovery+0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.602)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    21f32df67577471f71755013…
    follows 2adfe7025f5d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0502: EPM2A in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPM2A in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.