Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4874

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4873, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4874
    21 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    CARNS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCARNS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda338de62dc9365bb

    discovery+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f7dea8367e718aa5679c8719…
    follows f8320d215d93…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4874: CARNS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.23, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CARNS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.