Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4873

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4872, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4873
    21 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    CARNS1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCARNS1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered81af6c81ce9c8248

    discovery+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.349 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f8320d215d934b4d3403f904…
    follows a2c4a6e8c33c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4873: CARNS1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CARNS1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.