Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4525

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.074). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4524, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4525
    20 Oct 2026, 19:27 UTC

    KCNS3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNS3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6f7f0fdea4946aaa

    discovery+0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    replication+0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.074)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    11dbeca6180c06f189ec4d8f…
    follows 716f2db5c5c6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4525: KCNS3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18), 95% CI +0.11 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.49 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNS3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.