Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4524

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.70 p 0.035; held-out -0.22 p 0.567). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4523, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4524
    20 Oct 2026, 19:27 UTC

    KCNS3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionKCNS3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3e9c4ebb31e6d058

    discovery+0.70 p=0.035 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.567 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.70 p 0.035; held-out -0.22 p 0.567)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    716f2db5c5c63d169b304072…
    follows 787beef3d8d1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4524: KCNS3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNS3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.