Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2982

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2981, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2982
    19 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC

    APAF1

    microglia, braak

    predictionAPAF1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2464f9fab4bd30db

    discovery+0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.894)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1be855a719ead1ea11a136e9…
    follows 4f1e36ac622d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2982: APAF1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.03, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APAF1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.