Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

APAF1

apoptotic peptidase activating factor 1

translation score 0.44, read 2026-10-19; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.09 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including microglia; strongest in neutrophil progenitors0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
20 Parkinson's papers of 2,1930.60
pathways
Reactome
8 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2975

Sealed predictions

  1. APAF1 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.11 (p 0.787) → +0.38 (p 0.316)receipt 2983
  2. APAF1 in microglia, braak+0.05 (p 0.894) → -0.22 (p 0.565)receipt 2982

Swarm cases

receipt 2983: APAF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.15, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APAF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 2982: APAF1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.03, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APAF1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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