Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2420

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2419, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2420
    18 Oct 2026, 21:38 UTC

    PIRT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPIRT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbbc0d18621e5ddb8

    discovery+0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    92e1fc0fea153573429d8bb9…
    follows 23807c407124…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2420: PIRT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.09, sign flips 13; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIRT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.