Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2419

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.911). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2418, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2419
    18 Oct 2026, 21:38 UTC

    PIRT

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPIRT in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb99c5db5fcbcc50

    discovery+0.04 p=0.911 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.911)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    23807c407124298d7a7cb2c6…
    follows 98f59cdb4311…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2419: PIRT in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIRT in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.