Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0023

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.953). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 22, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0023
    16 Oct 2026, 15:03 UTC

    VPS35

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVPS35 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered712dae62d1f63a54

    discovery+0.01 p=0.953 n=42

    replication+0.06 p=0.692 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.953)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ddd6af53e835e202798ac523…
    follows da67af1439ef…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0023: VPS35 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.837, n 84), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.24. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.07 (p 0.552, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.767, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.00 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.766, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in endothelial: -0.51 (p 7.2e-7, n 84) vs +0.02 in dopamine neurons. proposing endothelial.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VPS35 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up VPS35 · endothelial · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.28 p 0.012 (needs p < 0.010)