Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0024

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.16, p 0.567). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 23, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0024
    16 Oct 2026, 15:03 UTC

    VPS35

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionVPS35 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered736a1ae100db1f7e

    discovery-0.16 p=0.567 n=25

    replication-0.28 p=0.330 n=30

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.16, p 0.567)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    772c4be7208365b6dece381f…
    follows ddd6af53e835…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0024: VPS35 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.388, n 55), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.24 (p 0.230, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.256, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.432, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for VPS35 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.