Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0022

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.33, p 0.194). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 21, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0022
    16 Oct 2026, 14:59 UTC

    FBXO7

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionFBXO7 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredb9e3fee35b7e68b3

    discovery+0.33 p=0.194 n=28

    replication+0.61 p=0.056 n=27

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.33, p 0.194)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da67af1439effdc4627e1132…
    follows 987865f707a3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0022: FBXO7 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.046, n 55), 95% CI +0.14 to +0.60. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.38 (p 0.053, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.0091, n 55). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.034, n 46). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for FBXO7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.