Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2020

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2019, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2020
    18 Oct 2026, 12:08 UTC

    P4HA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionP4HA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc269f9925a6a56cd

    discovery-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a9ce8b3b2951d919a47d2c5…
    follows 3965617d4edb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2020: P4HA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P4HA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.