Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2019

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.666). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2018, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2019
    18 Oct 2026, 12:06 UTC

    FPR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFPR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede14db58af98fa9fd

    discovery+0.17 p=0.666 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.666)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3965617d4edb1b3b11b27ba9…
    follows 16375ffd04c2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2019: FPR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FPR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.