Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17272

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17271, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17272
    01 Nov 2026, 11:03 UTC

    KCNE4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNE4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf95268313a335df1

    discovery+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9d25de85c3164ac8dac183d2…
    follows 2cbe5cf10818…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17272: KCNE4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNE4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.