Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17271

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.579). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17270, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17271
    01 Nov 2026, 11:03 UTC

    KCNE4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionKCNE4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd60ae3ad038c007b

    discovery+0.21 p=0.579 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.579)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2cbe5cf10818c21296a594d1…
    follows 0162347e29c8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17271: KCNE4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.16, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNE4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.