Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17126

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0099; held-out +0.27 p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17125, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17126
    01 Nov 2026, 07:51 UTC

    PPM1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPM1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9356f5e5f80f1c16

    discovery+0.80 p=0.0099 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0099; held-out +0.27 p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    be65fedc03ca26a1ecae6a1b…
    follows c339cee46885…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17126: PPM1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPM1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.