Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17125

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.133). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17124, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17125
    01 Nov 2026, 07:51 UTC

    PPM1B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPPM1B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6248572200664967

    discovery+0.54 p=0.133 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.54, p 0.133)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c339cee46885f07b2d1a2fee…
    follows 2b198c2cc2b1…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17125: PPM1B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPM1B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.