Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0017

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.155). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0017
    16 Oct 2026, 14:53 UTC

    DNAJC6

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionDNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1fd25d30fffa19c0

    discovery+0.22 p=0.155 n=42

    replication+0.63 p=9.2e-6 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.155)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d35ad60da23ed84fee142434…
    follows 686be63eafd5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0017: DNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 1.1e-5, n 84), 95% CI +0.27 to +0.61. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.40 (p 1.4e-4, n 84). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.09 (p 0.422); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 1.2e-4, n 84). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 2.9e-4, n 75). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
nigra beats braak for DNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes: +0.45 (p 2.0e-5, n 84). proposing nigra.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up DNAJC6 · oligodendrocytes · nigra: ventral tegmental area +0.34 p 0.0019 (needs p < 0.025)