Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0018

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.038; held-out +0.18 p 0.477). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0018
    16 Oct 2026, 14:53 UTC

    DNAJC6

    oligodendrocytes, resilience

    predictionDNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered1731c84c9aea4006

    discovery+0.67 p=0.038 n=25

    replication+0.18 p=0.477 n=30

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.038; held-out +0.18 p 0.477)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    455b808d9554be855041f3fe…
    follows d35ad60da23e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0018: DNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes, resilience

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.147, n 55), 95% CI +0.02 to +0.51. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.31 (p 0.119, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.52 (p 0.0075); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.165, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.066, n 46). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
braak beats resilience for DNAJC6 in oligodendrocytes: +0.46 (p 1.1e-5, n 84). proposing braak.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up DNAJC6 · oligodendrocytes · braak: ventral tegmental area +0.37 p 8.1e-4 (needs p < 0.017)