Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0016

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.09, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0016
    16 Oct 2026, 14:50 UTC

    PLA2G6

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionPLA2G6 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered5d03e84e7399a095

    discovery+0.09 p=0.732 n=32

    replication+0.18 p=0.570 n=23

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.09, p 0.732)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    686be63eafd535a46ebf77fb…
    follows 1216b3f10e40…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0016: PLA2G6 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.474, n 55), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.15 (p 0.436, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.412, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.479, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for PLA2G6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.