Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1695

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.021; held-out -0.05 p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1694, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1695
    18 Oct 2026, 04:18 UTC

    ATXN3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATXN3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda7c3ea7138cac54d

    discovery-0.75 p=0.021 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.021; held-out -0.05 p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    6dd4a481391ddcab3f2b3688…
    follows bcbe22704bb7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1695: ATXN3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATXN3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.