Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1694

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1693, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1694
    18 Oct 2026, 04:15 UTC

    CA4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCA4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ef445088c90f6c7

    discovery-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.103 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bcbe22704bb72b4e354e495d…
    follows d3fbe6c91397…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1694: CA4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CA4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.