Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16830

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.224). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16829, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16830
    01 Nov 2026, 01:58 UTC

    DPEP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDPEP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9dcc340e50e98758

    discovery-0.45 p=0.224 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.224)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    484f12e00c0f9e8f007e8b5b…
    follows 9415358cd5bf…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16830: DPEP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPEP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.