Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16829

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.888). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16828, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16829
    01 Nov 2026, 01:58 UTC

    DPEP2

    microglia, braak

    predictionDPEP2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7298a2e287b4552a

    discovery+0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.888)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9415358cd5bfccb50cbafeab…
    follows 5ccb1b1c1d7b…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16829: DPEP2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPEP2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.