Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16822

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.222). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16821, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16822
    01 Nov 2026, 01:50 UTC

    TOPORS

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTOPORS in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede8317dd1109ddb43

    discovery+0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.45, p 0.222)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e7e435c6eb32cdeb3e8efc2f…
    follows 96a8e037accb…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16822: TOPORS in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI +0.05 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.44 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TOPORS in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.