Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16821

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16820, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16821
    01 Nov 2026, 01:47 UTC

    SLC38A7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC38A7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb9ff62a0017f283

    discovery+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    96a8e037accb11af5150c215…
    follows c37a5c74f6fa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16821: SLC38A7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.05, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0028, n 18) vs -0.04 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC38A7 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC38A7 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.05 p 0.859 (needs p < 1.4e-4)