Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16657

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16656, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16657
    31 Oct 2026, 22:10 UTC

    WNT2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWNT2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered17179839f5d9cdf0

    discovery-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.031 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3f06c56d798710fddefb15c2…
    follows f5c53fb63cea…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16657: WNT2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WNT2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.