Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16656

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.299). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16655, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16656
    31 Oct 2026, 22:10 UTC

    WNT2B

    microglia, braak

    predictionWNT2B in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered44559a1d655667e5

    discovery+0.39 p=0.299 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.779 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.299)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f5c53fb63ceab4f54794be33…
    follows afbd2ab3671d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16656: WNT2B in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WNT2B in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.