Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16658

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16657, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16658
    31 Oct 2026, 22:12 UTC

    UBE2T

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2T in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1e3db58901a23403

    discovery+0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c3e61244d262b1126652638…
    follows 3f06c56d7987…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16658: UBE2T in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.19, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2T in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.