Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16511

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.227). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16510, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16511
    31 Oct 2026, 18:56 UTC

    CTNND1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTNND1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered18b559d60150525d

    discovery-0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.227)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5f30824388b7a4d96643ebd1…
    follows 81115562c395…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16511: CTNND1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.06. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18) vs -0.51 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTNND1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CTNND1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)