Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16510

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16509, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16510
    31 Oct 2026, 18:56 UTC

    CTNND1

    microglia, braak

    predictionCTNND1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered69d00029b9e78273

    discovery+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    81115562c395c04564104339…
    follows 07d797baec1b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16510: CTNND1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18) vs +0.26 in microglia. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTNND1 in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CTNND1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.22 p 0.424 (needs p < 1.4e-4)