Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16476

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16475, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16476
    31 Oct 2026, 18:09 UTC

    DOK5

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionDOK5 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1c253b27561b1100

    discovery-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.195 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0c6a483b5d7ce006dcebb883…
    follows c33fe58cb992…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16476: DOK5 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOK5 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.